For thousands of years humans have tried to predict, manage, and control the future. Our ancestors looked for advice from oracles and read the stars. In more recent history, we have turned to science to determine future trends. But a fixed and knowable future doesn’t exist. As I look back on 2023, I recognize – …
Although China is moving to change that calculus, it will take a lot of effort, changes in their foreign currency policy, changes to how imports and exports are handled, changes in banking requirements, increased transparency to attract more FDI, and a determined effort to lighten up on U.S. Treasuries. Perhaps we will see significant progress …
While the US$ represents 59% of world reserve currencies, the Yuan is a paltry 2-3%. Read More »
It’s a stunning reversal, from the top end of my bond model at 5% right through the middle at 4%, which my model calculates as fair value, based on potential GDP growth and the forward curve. The model shows 3.5% is the bottom of the range. (See chart titled “US Bond Valuation.”) What’s next? My guess is …
The growing debt is not new. Things started to get out of control after the banking crisis of 2008. Interest rates were pushed to zero. Taking on new debt to stimulate the economy was almost free money. We’d found the philosopher’s stone of finance: MMT. We could print as much money as we wanted. We …
“Michael Saunders, who was on the Monetary Policy Committee between 2016 and 2022, said the £126 billion ($161 billion) “lifetime cost” to the taxpayer of central bank money printing…”
This notable development underscores the substantial capital that was previously held in reserve, primarily by retail investors awaiting the mentioned policy pivot. The present market upswing will reinforce household financial portfolios, increase wealth effect, and potentially stimulate increased consumer spending.
Investors, according to Kolanovic, are putting too much weight into the idea that an economic recession will be avoided in 2024. That view, combined with the fact that equity valuations are rich, credit spreads are tight, and volatility is “unusually low” suggests to Kolanovic that now is not the time to be piling into stocks. …
